Gold price: Waiting for the big impulse

In the course of the shortened trading week in the USA, the impulses for the gold price were missing recently. The gold market is also in a waiting position from a fundamental point of view. On the US futures market, however, futures positions were reduced.


Gold price unmoved

The price of gold is currently stagnating. The US futures market also provided hardly any impetus due to the holiday in the USA. Due to Thanksgiving, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (CFTC) published the current CoT data only yesterday, Monday, after the close of trading. As of November 26, 2019, there were the following changes in the positions of the largest trading groups in the gold futures on COMEX.


Delayed CoT data

The net short position of the “Commercials” fell by 4 percent to 305,467 contracts compared to the previous week. The two sub-groups “Prod/Merch/Proc/User” (actual physical gold traders) and “Swap Dealers” (including major banks) participated in practically equal proportions. On the other side of the market, the net long position of the “big speculators” fell by almost 5 per cent to 271,634 contracts. Here it was above all the “other reportables” that reduced their forward purchases more significantly (-14 per cent).


Position reduction

Open interest, i.e. the sum of all open gold contracts on COMEX, fell by almost 7 percent to 669,268 contracts compared to the previous week. This was the first decline since 15 October 2019 within the framework of the weekly CoT data. By the close of trading yesterday, Monday, it had risen slightly by 0.45 percent to 672,326 contracts.


Gold Price Perspectives

The gold price of 1,463 US dollars per ounce (FOREX) was almost unchanged from the previous trading week (+0.1 percent). Yesterday, after the close of trading in the US, there was practically no change in the price of 1,462 US dollars. As for this week, new U.S. labor market data may provide some movement. Wednesday will see the release of the November report from US private employment agency ADP. The official job report of the US government (“Non-farm Payrolls”) will follow on Friday afternoon.


Trade conflict

According to media reports, negotiations between the USA and China on an interim agreement in the trade dispute have stalled. The United States had recently been a strong supporter of the Hong Kong democracy movement, which was not particularly well received in Beijing. China responded with sanctions. For the time being, US warships will no longer be allowed to enter Hong Kong. In addition, punitive measures against US organizations are planned, which China suspects to support the protest movement in Hong Kong.