Gold price: Directional decision this week?

The gold price has recently stabilized above the 1,330 Euro mark. In the evening the minutes of the last Fed meeting are on the agenda. There are signs of new tensions between the USA and China. The chart could also be interesting for gold.


Gold price firm

The troy ounce of gold cost $1,478 this morning at 9:30am. That was equivalent to 1,336 euros. After reaching the three-month low of 1,453 US dollars or 1,320 euros on 12 November, the gold price stabilized somewhat.


Chart technique

From a chart technical point of view, the situation has hardly changed compared to our last presentation. The price line of the euro-denominated gold price continues to move in the middle of a falling wedge, after the precious metal marked its all-time high of 1,418 euros at the beginning of September. A short-term breakout of the Euro gold price above the € 1,350 mark would be a strong bullish signal (bullish wedge). We see an important short-term barrier at € 1,335. There is support at € 1,320. The international gold price has already overcome a significant short-term resistance at 1,473 US dollars.

USA vs. China

Even from a fundamental point of view, everything remains the same for the time being. There is a rapprochement in the trade dispute between the USA and China. However, in the wake of the escalating unrest in Hong Kong and the reaction of those in power there, new political tensions are looming. The USA, for example, is threatening to impose sanctions if human rights violations are found. China has prohibited itself from interfering.


Fed Protocol

As far as the gold price is concerned, things could get exciting again this evening. At 8 pm (CET) the US Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its meeting at 29-30 October. There could be indications of further interest rate developments in the USA. However, analysts did not expect a further reduction in the Federal Funds Rate before the end of the year. The next Fed meeting ends on 11 December. Also at the January meeting of the Fed, the probability of an interest rate cut on the US futures market will only be traded with a probability of 18 percent.


US economic data

What are the upcoming dates this week? The publication of various soft economic indicators is scheduled for Friday (Markit Purchasing Managers Index, Uni Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, Kansas Fed Index).